I am going to do my best to give the people, who have absolutely no idea what’s going on in the NFL, some draft strategies for fantasy football this year. Scoring and league size are two big things to consider before your draft. In PPR leagues you want guys who get the ball a lot and Non-PPR you need people who are going to score touchdowns and rack up yards. I have always preferred PPR because I think it’s more forgiving in later rounds and higher scoring.
In PPR leagues, you want to look for wide receivers with large target shares. You need to be picking guys who are going to be seeing 10 targets a game. Even if it’s a shitty team, it pays off taking their best wide receiver just knowing he is going to get thrown the ball the whole game and those 8 catches for 50 yards and a garbage time touchdown still get you 19 points. Deandre Hopkins is looking like a prime example of that this year. For a team that everyone thinks is going to be absolutely garbage, they do have some weapons. It is always a risky to take guys like these because their teams always have potential to put up 0 points. That is another draft strategy that I try to abide by. I tend to pick guys on competent teams even if they are listed lower on the projections.
However, in Non-PPR, you really need touchdowns. You want the running backs who you know are going to be getting the ball in the red zone. Pass catching running backs like Ekeler and McCaffrey have much less value here than they do in PPR leagues this year. I actually do think in a Non-PPR League, Nick Chubb is probably going to end up being RB1. For wide receivers, it pays off a lot to have deep threats. Literally, one touchdown for 60 yards is 12 points in the CBS league. It is crazy how one big touchdown can completely change the landscape of those games. Quarterback is absolutely the most important position in these leagues. You need a Mahomes or Allen who is going to average at least 3 touchdowns a week. It is really hard to win in these leagues when your QB lays an egg. It has always seemed like if your team can put up 100 points then you will win. For these drafts, you want touchdowns and no slant boys.
League size is a big deal. Anything over 12 people, in my opinion, is stupid to do for a league. I have been doing some mock drafts and this year’s draft is pretty weird. I don’t like the rankings they gave players. For example, the 30s are just running backs. If you are in a 14 person league, you pretty much have to go RB – RB with your first two picks or your starters are going to fucking suck. 12 team leagues you have a little cushion to get those 2 running backs in the first 3 rounds. I don’t like to take running backs that have a solidified two man back field. There is definitely still value to be found after the 30s. There are a lot of guys who have the name of a starting running back (like the dudes who you like oh shit he’s actually good) but are sharing carries this year. An interesting one for me is Deandre Swift. He is sharing carries with Penny. Also, does Jalen Hurts taking every carry from within 3 yards diminish his value to be a 5-7 round pick? I hope to not have to make this decision by having all of my running backs before then.
I used to be religious about taking 3 running backs in the first 3 rounds. It got me to the championship of my league three years in a row. Those were all PPR leagues. I would call me getting to the finals last year a fluke and an example of my team going crazy when they really needed to. But hey, board man gets paid.
This year I think all of the Redskins’ players should be prime targets for your team. Terry is listed as a mid round projection and he is going to see 10 targets a game on average. He is a deep threat and a redzone threat. He is the whole package and I really hope I have the chance to draft him at good value. Curtis Samuel is a guy you will be able to take in the late rounds. He is going to be catching touchdowns this year and getting the ball 5 to 10 times a game. People forget he played running back at Carolina before coming over. He is absolutely a dude who can put up numbers in your flex position. If Logan Thomas can stay healthy, then yes he is a starting tight end. Beiniemy is the tight end whisperer. I hope to see Cole Turner getting more involved in the offense this year. Our running back room is going to be a one two punch. BRob (goat) is going to be getting all of the carries within 10 yards. Gibson will be utilized in the pass game and also get a lot of carries this year. I don’t think there is a clear cut RB1 on this team. They run with two different styles and will be a very productive combo.
And now, for the future MVP, Sam Howell who after playing one game last season solidified himself as a top 5 quarterback in this year’s fantasy draft. The way he absolutely picked apart the allegedly “elite” Cowboys defense and bought a team with nothing to play for to victory. He used his legs and elite arm to keep the defense guessing until the game was over. Teams have no idea whats coming from Sam Howell this year. Sam is going to a bonafide star after this season. I predict he will statistically have the best season we have ever seen from someone named Sam. Is he worth taking over Mahomes? Yes, 100%. I am all about the hype. But to be serious, wait to draft a QB. If you want Sam, he will be there in late rounds.
I am very open to taking early round wide receivers who I am confident in this year. This obviously includes every WR in the first round. Jettas, Jamar, Cooper, Tyreek, and Kelce are all going to put up monster numbers all season. I prefer McCaffrey and Ekeler but I will absolutely be happy with Chubb or Henry if a running back is the best player available when I am picking. I do hope that a running back is the best available, it will make the rest of the draft more natural because of my philosophy of taking running backs early. The first round this year, other than Bijan, I will be taking the next best man up.
I know Bijan is going to be really good. He is probably going to be really, really good. Last year, their 5th round rookie (Tyler Allgeier – dog) rushed for over 1000 yards. That backfield is young and going to be really good. I just don’t trust using my first round pick on a rookie when there is already another solidified, competent running back that is sharing the carries.
But, if you really want to keep buying into the Bijan hype. This strength of schedule graphic does give you some reason to. I think SoS gives you an idea of what teams are going to be more forgiving to pick players from. Jamaal Williams’ late round pick is looking really enticing for those first 4 games. I think they will go 3-1 because they play dog shit teams to start the season. I am not a Derek Carr believer, but I think the Saints D and run game will win them those games. Once Kamara is back, he is going to put up numbers. Is he worth having on the bench for the first four weeks? I don’t think so but if he falls hard in your draft then he might be.
Another thing is late round rookie upside. There is always a random rookie wide receiver that ends up breaking out and becoming one his quarterbacks favorite targets. It happens a lot with the young guys. For all you Stroud boys out there, Tank Dell is a great pick to take as the one of last guys on your bench. I have been seeing a lot of tweets about him being a dog. I am anti Tony Pollard because I think Deuce Vaughn is going to be a dog. Jordan Addison replacing Adam Thielen is enticing because he should be seeing the share of the targets that are being replaced. T.J Hockenson is also a big beneficiary from that. Jaxson Smith-Njiba is going to be a dog. That wide receiver room is crowded, but I believe in Geno.
More fantasy pieces and some rankings will be coming out in preparation for the upcoming season. We want to help our readers get a leg up on the competition this year. While we always recommend sharing our content; this might be a post to keep to yourself. I think it’s a one to share with your good friends, but the ones who you know you won’t be playing with in your fantasy football league this year.
It is a dog eat dog world out there and fantasy football is the epitome of it. Information equals wins and wins equal playoffs and playoffs is where you make the money. We want everyone here to absolutely wipe the floor and own everyone in their leagues this year. You do not want to be getting your Monday morning coffee in the office next to the guy who is absolutely shit pumping you and hear him say something like “oh your tight end could still get you 27 points tonight to win.” Now, that I am in the real world. I think that is going to be the most disrespectful thing I can hear in the office moving forward. I will be having none of that this year.
— Rango
Photo Credit: Emilee Fails and Kourtney Carroll/Washington Commanders